What gets you to read an article? It’s the headline, right? Sometimes we read an article with a lousy headline, sometimes we get tricked into reading a lousy article with a good headline.
What’s wrong with this one?
One in five Apple customers owns an Apple Watch
Alright! Way to go Apple! Watch is a hit! A big hit!. Hmmm. I’m a math major and it didn’t take me long to figure out a problem with the math.
First, how many customers does Apple have?
Apple says there are 1.5-billion iPhones, iPads, and Macs in the wild. Yes, there is overlap. Some Apple customers have multiple devices. We have five kids, so five iPads. See how that works?
However, most reports say there are about 1-billion iPhones in the wild, and it’s less likely there are many of us carrying around two iPhones, so let’s go with that number ’cause it’s about right.
What’s one in five out of 1-billion?
Does anybody believe Apple has sold 200-million Watches so far?
CIRP, which stands for Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, which is a very long name for Guesstimators, says this:
Apple TV is the most popular of the gadgets among the Other Products, with about one-quarter of current customers owning one.
Apple Watch has become almost as prevalent, after only a few years of availability.
Almost as prevalent? That can only mean Apple TV has outsold Watch.
Something is wrong with that picture, amirite? What kind of methodology did CIRP use to reach those conclusions?
CIRP based its findings on a survey of 500 Apple customers who purchased an iPhone, iPad or Mac in the U.S. between July and September 2019.
Were those 500 Apple customers inside an Apple Store? Did they all wear the same color t-shirt? Were they friendly? This is why survey results can be next to meaningless. Just ask Hillary Clinton. Less than 100,000 votes scattered across three states flipped an election.
I could do the same kind of survey with similar results simply by asking a few friends, some co-workers, nearby neighbors, and family members what Apple products they own and then stick the numbers into a spreadsheet. With just a few differences in the numbers, Apple Watch might be owned by 90-percent of all iPhone customers.
That is saturation and spells doom for Watch.